NBA Team Updates!
We know a LOT more now...
We learn a LOT about NBA teams very quickly when the real season starts. There are some surprises, good and bad, and some no surprises (sadly). I’ll quote my pre-season article to show what was previously thought. Here are the links to the Full preseason reviews East and West.
How good were my Pre-Season Predictions??? Let’s dig in quickly here cause there is a lot to cover…..
Eastern Conference
Cavs
“Stay healthy and they should be representing the East. But there are clear weaknesses this team hasn’t fixed very well.”
A top team in the East at 8-5 and Garland hasn’t played too much yet let alone hit full stride. But a lot of weakness has already been seen as well. We’ve hit the nail on the head with this one. Prediction 100% correct.
Knicks
“I just can’t help wondering how much of the Knicks success these past few years was due to an Old Grumpy Head Coach.”
At 8-4 the Knicks have played Solid games easily, but they haven’t dominated, and they probably should have a bit more in the weak East. However Brown has clearly put together a system that’s working well. They’ve dodged the downside from the coaching move and now get to see how good they can become before the Playoffs start. A lot more work to integrate everyone in the new system. All Good. Prediction (concern) was a Miss.
Indy
“When he (TJ McConnell) sits down I have no clue who’s driving the Bus or where it will end up going! South I suspect. Fast.”
At 1 and 11 the Pacers are Dead in the Water. TJ only lasted 2 games and is out. As predicted, this team went South…Fast!!! The ‘Plan B’ management was hoping for:
“If Mathurin or Jarace Walker can level up it might not matter anymore who’s driving the Bus cause it’s just too Big and Fast to stop anyway.”
Mathurin put up 31/7/2.5 per game…and got injured after ONLY 2 games. So his predicted ‘level up’ was clearly there but yet again injury destroyed the Pacers.
It’s all over but the development now in Indy. Nailed this prediction 100% right!
Magic
Orlando’s sitting at 7-6 but haven’t ‘looked good’ at all yet.
“This team is Top 4 in the East. No Question.”
Well not so fast. The Bane addition seems to have wiped out team chemistry early here. While it still is early, there are legit concerns that this all actually fits together properly now. The biggest problem, if this team is championship material, was predicted however,
“Ask Suggs if his knee is 100 or if he’s just gutting this season out trying to avoid more invasive surgery.”
He’s just gutting it out and has already started missing games. No way his knee survives a 4 series playoffs Grind. I’m Out. Prediction 1/2 wrong (Bane fit) and 1/2 right (Suggs knee).
Boston
“Brown says he can carry any team to the Playoffs, and he’s going to get the opportunity this year cause this team doesn’t have a legit starting NBA Center.”
At 6 and 7 with Jaylen Brown dropping 27/5/4 it is clear he can’t carry an NBA team to the Playoffs. With no one ‘stepping up’ and carrying the scoring load dumped by Tatum this team is mediocre at best. As predicted Center play has been weak. This team is a Brown injury away from Full Tank mode. Prediction 100% true.
Hawks
“This group screams top 6 in the weak Eastern conference. In fact the elite and large defense this group brings screams playoff upset to me.”
At 8 and 5 the Hawks are looking Great…as predicted! Even with Trae only playing 5 games the depth of high level talent on this team has covered up that huge loss. JJ looks All Star as most people expected to happen eventually. The other prediction,
“One of them is the sneaky addition of NAW or Nickel-Alexander Walker. He’s the perfect low maintenance fit beside the high flying Trae.”
NAW has been dropping 17/3/3.5 and starting games due to Trae’s injury. Let’s just say this sneaky addition paid off…Big Time! Prediction 100% correct!
Miami
“This Heat team has elite coaching and a lot of really good players to do everything an NBA team needs to do.”
The Heat at 7-6 do look really good so far. “I’ve got endless respect for Norman Powell still flying high in off the Wings” certainly was correct as Norm might be an All Star this year! I missed the Jaquez return to good but Ware has played Solid and is expected to get stronger as the year goes on. With Herro eventually returning this team is a Playoff group. Prediction 75% Good.
Philly
“The 76’ers deserve to be much higher on this list…and for a good part of this season they’ll look better than this…but at the end of the day there is just no way a 7 foot Giant can play 4 playoff series with only One Leg!”
At 7-5 the Sixers record certainly is better than they look. Joel has only played 1/2 the games and is a retirement risk if/when he mentally can’t handle the pain anymore. Maxey’s Heroic 32/5/8 per game is carrying this team most nights and while Nick Nurse squeezes the juice from VJ, Grimes and Oubre there isn’t more for this group to give. The return of Paul George will likely eat away minutes from that group with not much upside overall. Prediction 100% True so far.
Bucks
“To be honest nobody is going to be talking about the Bucks much this year. Except for Giannis getting traded. They’ll be around .500”
Well the trade talk has died down for now with the signing of a third Giannis brother to the organization. At 8-5 tho the Bucks have looked good and that’s largely been due to one surprise factor I completely missed. Ryan Rollins. Dude came out of largely nowhere and is dropping 17/4/6 every game. That’s enough to push my predicted .500 team up into the 6-8 range in this weak Eastern Conference. I still don’t see them doing anything more than one series win in the playoffs, but there are a lot of games to play between now and then! Prediction Wrong!
Raptors
“The addition of Brandon Ingram was a big move and will help them in many ways, but it doesn’t fix nearly enough.”
BI has looked quality in his work for Toronto so far and is the teams top scorer. He’s eased the scoring load on many others, helping them to better efficiency so far this year. With the team sitting at 7-5 the record looks a bit shaky as the Bench has played terrible for the most part this year. Center position looks weak with Jak physically struggling already and Mamu not bringing the defensive skills to be a back up Center. This team has been blessed with little injury issues and that will eventually end…along with their run of Good Play without depth. Prediction 50% right, 50% wrong.
Western Conference
Thunder
“OKC stormed through the playoffs last year….it’s probably up to them to stop themselves to be honest.”
So far the Thunder have looked a level or even 2 levels higher than any other NBA team. If fact it’s shocking how good they’ve looked. My full write up suggested they are mortal. So far that’s not been the case really. It was easy to say they would be great this year, but I said they have a weakness. Not True. Prediction 50% right.
Wolves
“But it’s not ALL on Ant’s shoulders! Leonard Miller is a Monster about to rip off his restraining collar. Dillingham and Shannon are young studs. So the Wolves are getting better, just like the Thunder.”
At 8-4 Minnesota looks good but not great. The usual top guys are performing well, Ant, Julius, Jaden, Donte, but everyone else hasn’t done much. My prediction of some young guns stepping up hasn’t happened, and Naz with Conley just look average. There is little more to hope for here with this group and a playoff exit in the first or second round looks reasonable. In my full review I wondered if ANT would take that level up to Super Star. So far, no. Prediction 100% wrong.
Nuggets
“The Joker has got to be the best player on the Planet, even with SGA getting the MVP award.”
Well I’ve nailed that one as Jokic is amazingly having the best season of his already insanely amazing career.
“He’s got better depth at Center this year so non-Joker minutes won’t be so terrible. He’s got better wing experience beside him and he’s still got a couple young guns rising up each year. Next year’s playoff could very well come down to who is the best at THE critical moments…SGA or Ant or the Joker.”
At 9-2 so far Denver has looked as good as my prediction expected. They are just better at nearly everything…and the Joker looks better than ever as well! In my previous review I didn’t give any Love to Aaron Gordon who’s Powering his way into a Hall of Fame player. My Bad. I was one of the very few who put the Nuggets AHEAD of the Rockets. Prediction 100% right.
Rockets
“there is good reason to believe FVV was simply holding back a rising star that could out perform him right now, this year. Yes Amen Thompson is THAT good!”
Amen is dropping 18/6/5.5 so far, so Fred VanVleet WHO??? Amen’s defense is World Class as well so nailed that prediction.
“Sengun has taken a jump this off season. His play in Europe was dominant as he’s clearly learned to be way more physical and impose his will on defenders.”
At 22/10/7 Sengun certainly has played even better so far this year. Not a hard prediction after watching him Eat Euro’s all Summer. The real test for this group doesn’t come until the Playoffs, but I’ll take my 100% right prediction so far.
Mavs
“Yeah on paper this is the NBA team to beat this year….But games aren’t played on paper and I’m putting them all the way down at 5th this year, so how can I call them the most talented NBA team and rate them so low? Well the pieces might not have enough time to gel before crunch time comes in the playoffs.”
This might be my Best prediction coming out of Pre-Season! While I expected more wins from this group overall, I clearly nailed the early struggles this team would face. If AD wouldn’t have been injured my prediction would be absolutely perfect for this team. Cooper’s looked good but not great. No surprise for a Rookie adjusting to the Grinding schedule of the NBA. Kidd has struggled to run the team well without a great PG and Kyrie sitting on the bench injured still. However I’m just not worried about this team until Kyrie returns. After that then I will look and see how they are playing. Up to then it’s just practice and meaningless games. Unless they loss so much they can’t even squeeze into the ‘everybody makes it’ playoff format now! That would be tragic. Prediction 100% right.
Lakers
“The slimmed down version who got dumped last year and had a revenge Summer and now fits in a killer bikini. That Luka could rise again and easily be in the MVP conversations all year, he’s that talented…But it’s the supporting cast that will likely let this Dream ending down ultimately.”
At 9-4 without LeBron LA has looked Show Time! Luka, as predicted, has looked MVP’ish dropping 34/9/9 nightly, carrying a solid playing group nicely. My prediction of poor play from Ayton was clearly wrong as he’s come in and played very well so far. The supporting cast has contributed fairly well also, and how JJ has got Marcus dropping 10 pts a game is far beyond my analytical skills. So with LeBron expected to return at any moment this team looks set for a serious playoff run this year. Prediction 100% Wrong.
Clippers
“Without Kawhi this team simply doesn’t have to horses to run with the Big Dogs in the West. James Harden is showing his All World talent can still carry teams, but CP3, Beal, Collins, Lopez just bring too much mileage, too few reliable options come physically demanding playoffs time.”
Turns out the Clippers can’t even grind out wins in the regular season let alone the playoffs! At 4-8 of course Kawhi has only played 6 games and the team looks bad without him. Ty Lue has already started ‘developing’ young players and sitting CP3, so this is a wrap management is telling everyone with ears. The real ending comes when Adam Silver sets up the Guillotine and cuts off Kawhi’s head, voiding his contract and pulling draft picks away from this team for Cheating. Expect a lot of blood on the streets but don’t worry. Ballmer has enough money to fix it. Prediction 100% correct.
Spurs
“There is a lot of young talent around Wemby now to think the Playoffs should be a given. However the Head Coach is a true question mark in ability let alone knowledge. De’Aaron and Wemby should get this team into a playoff series…”
It turns out Castle is the Yin to Wemby’s Yang in this Eastern Drama that is 8-4 now! The Rookie has looked All Star almost in his start in the NBA, stunning even people that were high on him. With Fox having returned this team has a lot of firepower, more than even predicted with the immediate impact of Castle. So this learning year looks great so far and we’ll all see how far they can go in the playoffs. Prediction 100% right.
Warriors
“…there is simply no reason to believe they might miss the playoffs. But here I am, predicting a down season against all odds. Why?”
Sitting at 8-6 isn’t that bad right now, but this Golden State team hasn’t looked good. While Curry Heroics have won a couple games lately, the failure of Kuminga to contribute and be happy looks like a big problem. Horford looks old, the Centers look weak and old. Moody and Podz just look ok and haven’t taken a step up that this team desperately needs to be a true contender. I expect this team to regress soon and fall down in the standings. So far they are doing well however, so I’ll take the Prediction L…but still confident in my prediction.
Grizzlies
“I look for an up and down year from this interesting group…If Ja has a great year the team will out perform slightly and could be in one seven game playoff series. If Ja waves his gun around some more the team could miss the playoffs and blow him out in a trade…my preferred outcome.”
Well the team is sitting at 4 and 9 and we all know why. Ja. As predicted, if Ja is good the team will be ok but if Ja is bad, it’s a wrap. Ja isn’t a happy gangster as the new Head Coach forces him into a highly structured minutes Euro system. Turns out team management might actually be on-board with blowing him out in a trade, as I mentioned possible. This year is toast and if management doesn’t have the Kahones to pull the trigger on Ja then even more damage will be done. Prediction one Thousand percent correct.
Conclusion
I’m quite pleased with my Pre-Season prediction work this year. I’ve nailed a lot of critical themes a bunch of teams are going through while getting a lot of teams winning and losing rather well placed. I enjoyed going ‘beyond the win/loss’ records in this work and trying to nail important themes that teams will be going through as well. Like ‘advanced stats’ it feels more like ‘advanced predictions’ which I quite like.